Sunday, March 23, 2008

ICICI Bank - 'Don't Call It A Comeback' ?

Down 38% YTD and now at $36/share, I believe ICICI BANK (IBN) offers one of the most compelling 2-3 year risk/reward bets currently available in the stock market today.

Below is a link to a pretty well written article shedding some outsider insight on the current 'investability' of the stock:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fragile-sentiment-sinks-banks/story.aspx?guid=%7BD68D1D91%2D368B%2D4A23%2D8C72%2DE05C45CCFB30%7D

My Takeaways:
*Credit in India is growing at an over 20% annual rate(!)
*The recent amortization issue involving the joint venture with Prudential doesn't seem to be all that of a big deal (looks like just a simple difference in accounting assumptions between 2 very different companies)
*$200 million of the reported $265 million in mark to market losses have already been provisioned for by the company
*ICICI Bank (IBN) is 70% owned by foreigners
*The stock is down 38% YTD and 50% from its highs in January
*At $36/share, the stock is now trading at 1.7 x Book Value (yeah I know...the measure has lost some credibility recently...regardless, this is an INDIAN BANK)

Full Disclosure: I own shares of IBN !