A March/April Comeback for Google ?

When will Google (GOOG) bottom???

The stock is down 220 points (32%) year to date and much of that decline has been attributed to a perceived slowing in the economy and worries about declining advertising growth in the future. Recent internet survey data released from comSCORE last week seemed to SCARE shareholders as the stock dropped precipitously when it was announced that Google's amount of received 'paid clicks' dropped 7% sequentially (from December '07 to January '08) and was flat year over year (i.e: no growth). There is no doubt that Google is a popular momentum stock and that it needs to be punished when there is documented evidence of its growth slowing. But..as is always the million $ question...at $450/share (a $140 Billion marketcap...trading at 30x forward earnings), is the selling overdone?
I believe so. And I also believe GOOG may be ripe for a bounce as we approach a potential catalyst in early April - the European Union's decision regarding the Google-DoubleClick merger. If the EU approves the $3.1 Billion merger on April 2nd, 2008 (and I see little reason for them not to given increasing competition a la Microsoft's recent $45 Billion bid for Yahoo....unless its based purely on anti-American sentiment which could unfortunately be the case), then Google should see a significant pick-up in a potentially key earnings growth stream - DISPLAY advertising.
Unfortunately, Google does not currently break out its % of sales by advertising segment (search, display, print, television, etc.) on its annual 10-K report. However, according to the Wall Street Journal, display advertising currently represents about 20% of all online advertising revenue....if Google is finally ALLOWED by the EU to make inroads against the display advertisting segment then the stock could rebound (and maybe rebound with some velocity).

My fundamental reasons for owning Google in 2008:
1.) The EU's decision on April 2nd could be a catalyst if the Google-DoubleClick merger deal goes through. If approved, Google should be able to grow earnings by making SIGNIFICANT inroads in the online display advertising market.

2.) Google will be releasing its Android mobile operating system platform in the 2nd half of 2008.

Full disclosure: I currently own shares of GOOG.