Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Is Systemic Risk Finally OFF the Table ?

I think it may be but I'll let you decide:

*MONEY IS CHEAP --> After The Federal Reserve's latest 75 basis point cut, the cost of money is now HISTORICALLY low/CHEAP (the Fed Funds rate currently stands at 2.25%).

*THE FED + ITS MIGHTY BALANCE SHEET --> The Fed has FINALLY demonstrated it is now willing to use its $800 Billion balance sheet to fulfill its fabled role as the 'Lender of Last Resort'. By agreeing to buy $30 Billion of controversial bonds from Bear Sterns (as part of its de facto sale to JP Morgan), the Fed shows its serious about stemming this credit crisis.

*A BANKRUPTCY TEMPLATE --> Following the collapse of Bear Sterns (BSC), the country's 5th largest securities broker, a graceful/orderly bankruptcy TEMPLATE now exists (one that largely reduces financial counter party risk and thus, won't shock/crush the system)

*RELIEF FINANCING FOR BROKERS --> Brokers are now able to borrow at The Federal Reserve's discount rate (2.50%). How important is this you ask? Lehman wasted no time and on the first day the window was accessible (today), ran to it and tapped the Fed to the tune of $2 Billion. In fact, it is widely believed that Bear Sterns (BSC...or the artist formerly known as BSC) would be alive and liquid today had this option been available to them last week !

*COLLATERAL TOLERANCE + ACCEPTANCE --> The Fed is now willing to accept all investment-grade bonds as collateral for its loans. This is huge because it promotes greater liquidity in the system by allowing all of those brokers + banks previously STUCK with ugly CDO's AKA 'non-performing assets' to finally squeeze SOME good out of them. Maybe they'll no longer be ironically viewed as a liability. The Fed's willingness to accept all investment-grade bonds also helps out the credit rating agencies who rated several questionable assets (of all sorts of different types) as 'investment grade'.

*INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY --> It is widely believed by many professional investors that the bottom of the 1998 bear market in stocks was triggered by the collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. Is the Fed following a 1998 script that required it to be provoked by the failure of a major financial institution (today that would be Bear) in order to make an example out of them by citing that failure to the American people as an excuse to FINALLY GET ON THE BALL?