Monday, March 31, 2008

Marcin's State Of The Market

I am a paid subscriber and loyal reader of financial news website, RealMoney.com. The below quote is from one of Realmoney's key contributors, Robert Marcin. In my opinion, Mr. Marcin's done a good job (thus far) of investing/trading and helping navigate readers through this U.S. credit crisis/recession...below he shares some valueable insight on what his current economic assumptions are and how he's trading them:

"I continue to avoid or short the domestic consumer and its financier. I would avoid home builders, banks, brokers, autos, general retail, consumer durables, utilities, and REITs. Here, falling home prices, a slowing domestic economy, shrinking balance sheets, and bigger financial charges will depress sales and profits for most companies.
While the world economy is slowing, the US housing/financial/durable economy is IMPLODING. I don't get the desire of investors to try to catch bottoms in a collapsing sector of the economy. This bottom fishing attempt in the housing/finance mess reminds me of the same after the tech bubble implosion. Everyone was too early.

My formula has always been to buy stocks that are down and cheap with good fundamentals, NOT imploding ones. I am watching the economic data very closely to see if we get a SPILLOVER of the problems (if the U.S.'s recession affects + materially slows down GLOBAL growth in the BRIC + ROW countries). But so far, the real, global economy has continued to muddle through the US housing/finance bust. If things change, I will adjust my positions. But for now, things still look ok with the global infrastructure/commodity/energy technology theme."

Data Courtesy: RealMoney.com (subscription), snagged on 3/31/08.